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Jazz Lineup

The month of April has been less than kind to the Utah Jazz. With only one victory all month, during a time when the race for the playoffs is so competitive, it seemed as though the Jazz might not even make it into the post season this year. However on April 5^th Ronnie Brewer led the Jazz to a victory over the New Orleans Hornets which clinched a playoff berth. It could be argued that the Jazz simply match up well against the Hornets, or that the constant comparison between Deron Williams and Chris Paul pushes D-Will to usually play harder against CP3, or whatever the reason is, there is a notable difference between how the Jazz played that game and how they have played since.

Ever since the Jazz clinched a playoff berth they have appeared to be playing half-heartedly. It's as if a switch that controls passion, desire and energy to win was consciously flipped off and has resulted in the performance not that of a team, but rather a group of 5 individuals who don't really care whether they win or not. All us Jazz fans know that this switch makes all the difference. And it has been apparent during the last 3 games that it is off. I ask my beloved team, Jazz where has the drive to win gone?

One answer to this question is unfortunately obvious considering the history of the Jazz. Stated blatantly, the Jazz win those they shouldn't win and they lose those they shouldn't lose. This can be proven over and over again. This year the Jazz defeated both the Celtics and the Lakers, but lost to the Wizards and the Thunder. This can't be explained other than by a shrug of the shoulders and saying, "That's our Jazz."

However, I propose another alternative to justify the way the Jazz have been playing this month. It's not that the Jazz suck. The reason is because they know something that isn't obvious to the rest of us. They know exactly how they are going to make it into the NBA Finals this year.

Everyone will tell you that the team to beat in the West is the L.A. Lakers. Everyone will tell you that it's not wise to play them in the first round and that the feared 8^th seed ought to be avoided like the Bubonic Plague. What everyone who is telling you these things doesn't realize is that the only chance the Jazz have to beat the Lakers will be during the first round. The Jazz know this and they are doing whatever it takes to make that happen, including intentionally losing these last few regular season games just to secure that 8^th seed.

This seems like a far-fetched conspiracy theory, but just because it seems like one or even that it is one, doesn't mean that it may not be true. Let's look at the playoff history of the Jazz. Of the last 25 years the Jazz have made it to 22 post season playoffs. Of those 22 playoffs the Jazz have progressed past the first round 13 times. 13 out of 22 makes a 59% second round or better appearance percentage. Compare this 59% progression past the first round with the 46% progression past the second round (once they make it that far), the 33% progression past the Western Conference Finals (once they make it that far) and the 0% winning of the NBA Finals (of which they have only appeared twice). So looking just at these stats the greatest percentage they have to progress past the Lakers is if they play them in the first round. This could be explained by the energy that the team has during the first round and slowly drains away as the post season continues. Whatever it is I think the Jazz have the best chance of beating the Lakers in the first round, and I also think that the Jazz have realized this as well.

The question remains, do the Jazz really have a chance at beating the Lakers in the playoffs? The answer is absolutely! Again let's look at the stats of the past playoffs. The Jazz have faced off against the Lakers four times in Jazz history, in '88, '97, '98, and '08. Of those four series the Jazz have won two and lost two. This seems to be a 50-50 record but let's look into it a little more. The ones the Lakers won, the series had gone to game 7 and 6 respectively. When the Jazz win a series against the Lakers it only takes 4 or 5 games, respectively. That sums up to 13 playoff victories over the Lakers and only 9 losses. With this in mind, it is likely that the Jazz will defeat the Lakers and they will do it in the first round!

So it may seem currently that the Jazz are not playing up to their full potential. But fear not. The Jazz are simply playing their cards right in order to create the easiest path for them into the NBA Finals! GO JAZZ!